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How lucky is too lucky?: The Minecraft Speedrunning Dream Controversy Explained 

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Buy my book Humble Pi now!
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker/
UPDATE: Harvard Book Store have totally sold out.
My talk on 4 February 2021 at Harvard Book Store:
www.harvard.com/event/virtual_event_matt_parker/
Here is the original accusation against Dream.
Video: iritem.info/cd/fy-lm-h-y/Y7CKp5-xyX2ol2g.html&ab_channel=Geosquare
Paper: mcspeedrun.com/dream.pdf
And here is Dream's reply.
Video: iritem.info/cd/fy-lm-h-y/Z8yioLnXtIfPjoU.html&ab_channel=DreamXD
Paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1yfLURFdDhMfrvI2cFMdYM8f_M_IRoAlM/view
"Matt flips a coin 100 times."
iritem.info/cd/fy-lm-h-y/ipWJpM_Zl2jYo3k.html
"Holy Craps! How a Gambling Grandma Broke the Record"
content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1901663,00.html
Number of casinos in the world in 2011: 3,547
www.statista.com/statistics/221031/total-worldwide-casinos-by-region/
Roulette records.
www.roulette17.com/stories/record-reds-blacks-in-a-row/
CORRECTIONS
- At 09:08 I say “1 in 110 trillion” when I meant to say “1 in 110 billion”. The number on the screen is correct, it was just a verbal slip-up.
- At 25:27 I showed the 118 craps record as “1 in 1.2 × 10^9” when it should be “1 in 2.2 × 10^9”. The voiceover says the correct number.
- I slip and “more likely” instead of “less likely” at 33:47 (I think I may have even been going for “more unlikely”). But everything in the screen is correct.
- Let me know if you spot any more mistakes!
Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend [[REDACTED]] hours filming myself trying to achieve improbably things. If you support me, you can get access to all [[REDACTED]] hours of bonus footage from this episode.
www.patreon.com/standupmaths
As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing. And I believe they have no opinion on Dream.
www.janestreet.com/
Endless filming by Matt Parker
Editing by Alex Genn-Bash
Some graphics by Ben Sparks
Minecraft consultancy by Oliver Dunk
Music by Howard Carter
Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson
MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: standupmaths.com/
US book: www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker/
UK book: mathsgear.co.uk/collections/books/products/humble-pi-signed-paperback

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2021 4 فوریه

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Stand-up Maths
Stand-up Maths پیش 22 روز
I’m not commenting on how many takes that took. But feel free to guess! (And if you must know: the complete footage of every attempt will be uploaded to Patreon. patreon.com/standupmaths )
Charske Vlogs
Charske Vlogs پیش 3 روز
I wonder how long the bball thing took XD
kkmac
kkmac پیش 3 روز
@BlacksmithTWD These are all of the streams Dream did in 1 week, they are all uploaded on twitch
kkmac
kkmac پیش 3 روز
@TheAtheistPaladin I think 100 million absolute best case. Most likely, more like 1 trillion
Shaquille Oatmeal
Shaquille Oatmeal پیش 3 روز
@Douglas Morrison Probably did but he realized it would be good for the video so he re did it until he didn't smile.
Fred Scooby
Fred Scooby پیش 3 روز
I love minecraft, and find it too be highly mathematical, I am sure you found this to be true as well, I came for the math though and thanks. My fahter and I both actually love this game, we use the mathematics embedded in the game to create massive structures in Survival. And in doing so, we learned to count at incredibly fast rates, although, only usually based on 2 and 4 though, or sometimes 64 if we must. It has created an interesting view for myself, as I began to notice real mathematical patterns in the real world, which was really wild.
George munson
George munson پیش 2 ساعت
Thank you so much! You finally put this thing to bed.
Wilbur !
Wilbur ! پیش 4 ساعت
Dream is a cheater!!
N. J.
N. J. پیش 5 ساعت
Matt you’re a gem, had to put this one on the big screen and pour myself a beer!
Joe Dowling
Joe Dowling پیش 6 ساعت
So if I follow correctly it would take 1000 centuries? So your saying there’s a chance! 😉
Seth Schaffner
Seth Schaffner پیش 6 ساعت
This has been recommended for weeks I refuse to watch it. I only clicked on it so it would stop being there
Fun For all
Fun For all پیش 6 ساعت
I was there at the roulette table when that record was set! I was the guy who lost all his money while yelling "always bet on black!" After each spin
Michi R.
Michi R. پیش 8 ساعت
I know nothing about Minecraft and little about Speedrunning, so i'm a bit confused at Mats comments ~10:30 - if this run would have been "only" the 4th fastest, why is it even so controversial. And if one needs such incredible unlikely luck to get such times .. what about all the others [above/around him], wouldn't they be at least as unlikely? Did i miss something?
Athenri
Athenri پیش 3 ساعت
Luck is part of it, but it's not the entire thing. Secondly, the one in twenty sextillion is for the drops across the six livestreams, not for his final run.
Antonio Molina Torres
Antonio Molina Torres پیش 6 ساعت
It wasn't mentioned in this video but up until the very last part of the run, Dream was on pace to get the world record, and it only ended up not being the case because he had to go back and get more eyes of ender thus wasting a lot of time
Recardo Fernando
Recardo Fernando پیش 9 ساعت
I think illuminas last Speedrun might also be too lucky
brawl stars
brawl stars پیش 8 ساعت
Dream had bunch of Lucky runs not just one
Super Chilli Face
Super Chilli Face پیش 10 ساعت
I got bored on this channel for the first time.
Matt Sokolowski
Matt Sokolowski پیش 13 ساعت
I'd be interested to know how the Minecraft code creates the 'random' element of these drops. Developers generally use algorithms to create 'puedo-random' numbers, true randomness isn't really achievable in most cases. Depending on the 'randomness algorithm' at play, the distribution of values may be more predictable than suggested here. Nevertheless, an excellent breakdown of the mathematics at play.
almo2001
almo2001 پیش 14 ساعت
I'm like WHAT ABOUT THE MISSING CLOSING PARENTHESIS. Oh he just mentioned it. OK. :D
DatRude Sandstorm
DatRude Sandstorm پیش 15 ساعت
I wonder, did people account if there were worlds played off livestream?
Athenri
Athenri پیش 14 ساعت
Doesn't actually matter unless there's reason to believe that the drop rates should differ
Syntax
Syntax پیش 16 ساعت
The fun thing is regardless of how unlikely anything is, so long as it’s not impossible, it could still happen at any point in time
Cuntroll Denied
Cuntroll Denied پیش 19 ساعت
This guy looks like depressed Jim Carrey
Lev Just lev
Lev Just lev پیش 20 ساعت
Dreams personality is the one that will win no matter what, ive met someone like dream before, he will do anything to win even if it means cheating
Heshieok Fasla
Heshieok Fasla پیش 21 ساعت
The thing to consider with the casino examples too is there is a human element of those events. Its undoubted that the way the dice were rolled and the dice themselves would dictate heavily on the rolls. The actual odds of the 154 craps rolls is likely lower than what pure math which makes dreams record even more absurd.
Work Out
Work Out پیش 22 ساعت
23:32 I wonder how many takes it took to roll those numbers in that order
No Name
No Name پیش 22 ساعت
came for the minecraft. staying for more maths.
Head Chef
Head Chef پیش روز
Just here for the speedrunning tea
EforEvery1
EforEvery1 پیش روز
Algorithm pleasing comment
Angel Sanchez
Angel Sanchez پیش روز
Omg this guy destroyed this Dreams guy
Angel Sanchez
Angel Sanchez پیش روز
Came here for the memes, got out with a book recommendation. Sir, you have interested me in math.
Mr Tav
Mr Tav پیش روز
I'm just here to say that statistics are a lie. Dunno who Dream is or who Matt is, but being a guy who finished a special-math class/direction/specialization thingy in high school (I don't know what would be a correct term/comparison to US since I'm based in EU, but it's made of 4 years of study from mostly different math and I.T. classes) and also being a person with 130+ IQ I gotta say that statistics are a big lie and deception. :) And the term "on average" is the biggest weapon of deception (of them all) that can throw numbers in your favor or against you [or anyone else] whatever you like/prefer. Be simple, be binary is my motto; everything in life is 50-50. How? -Well it can either happen or not. You will either win or lose, rod/pearls will either drop or not, you'll either guess where is the ball (under which cup) or not, live or die and so on... Nothing in life (or in our case in games) is perfect and there is always a chance to improve your result, so pushing ourselves to constantly do more/bigger/better is an inevitable progression. How many planets are there? And how big universe actually is? What are the odds that we (human species) are alone in the whole universe? And what are the odds that "aliens" doesn't possess technology to reach our little black corner of space? Yet there aren't concrete proofs that we ever encountered other species so far. Or did we [if they don't look nothing alike we are so stubbornly representing them]? :) You see, it's all part of the viewing point. Once a great man said: "You shouldn't doubt everything, you should question everything, only then you will find a true wisdom", I would rather say it is called 'the process of evolution'. :) #JustDoItNothingIsImpossible
Aakash
Aakash پیش 59 دقیقه
If you are gonna include your IQ to prove the validity of your statement in an argument, then you are gonna lose for sure..
Adrian Xhokli
Adrian Xhokli پیش 14 ساعت
that.... was overwhelmingly stupid and i want you to apologize for making me read it
Rowan
Rowan پیش 20 ساعت
'everything in life is 50-50. How? -Well it can either happen or not' I think your confusing possibility with probability.
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش روز
130 IQ and 4 years of navy seal maths training all to reach “winning the lottery is 50/50, you either win or lose”. You honestly expect us to believe you when you’ve shown you can’t even understand primary school maths?
Athenri
Athenri پیش روز
If only you had made it to the first semester of college instead of clinging to poorly understood high school knowledge.
Austin Downing
Austin Downing پیش روز
So dream got 42 pearls out of 262 barters. I’m not arguing for or against dreams innocence, but something all non minecrafters should know is that every speed runner stops bartering after they reach a target number of pearls. With that being said the last barter in any speed run would/should always end in a pearl. So the last barter in each analyzed run should not be analyzed as it is “fixed” as being a pearl. Since 6 of dreams speed runs were critiqued wouldn’t we need to subtract 6 from both the successful attempts and the total attempts when calculating the bartering probability? 36 pearls out of 256 trades not 42 out of 262.
JuukaRock
JuukaRock پیش روز
Not how it works. Only the last trade of the last run is guaranteed to be a success. Why not the runs in the middle? Because think about what happens after you end a run; you start another one. Another comment put it best. If you're flipping a coin over and over, and every two heads, you stand up and shout "I can kill the Ender Dragon!", does that mean you can cut out every second heads result to get the rate of your coin? (Also it was 6 live streams, not 6 runs. It was 33)
Fleent Stones?
Fleent Stones? پیش روز
This man is a straight up mix between Legal Eagle and Tom Segura.
TheZero Dav
TheZero Dav پیش روز
7 takes but do to your wording i would guess14-69 takes
michael Duffy
michael Duffy پیش روز
A number so lucky that you are actually unlucky if you hit it... because nobody believes you.
TheZero Dav
TheZero Dav پیش روز
here for both and love the math
theone9273
theone9273 پیش روز
If his would have been the fourth fastest, wouldn't that invalidate the top three?
JuukaRock
JuukaRock پیش روز
No because Dream's issue was his consistently good luck over 33 consecutive games. The other runners had relatively the same number of runs analyzed and all of them were pretty average.
Wilson Chan
Wilson Chan پیش روز
I love how he has clean backwards throws
Alstoyle
Alstoyle پیش روز
I'm sorry sir but you pointed to mike sltysons punch out as a game with very little luck. That is untrue. I'm able to speedrun Minecraft and get fairly close to some "good times" without crazy luck, I can't even approach some of the mike Tyson times without 1/x000 luck and combos. But I mean other than that awesome video 10/10. Thumbs up.
Nelson Joppi
Nelson Joppi پیش روز
disapointed with dream
LatencyOsu
LatencyOsu پیش روز
If it is statistically possible it will someday happen.
Aakash
Aakash پیش 56 دقیقه
@LatencyOsu Theres a chance that a mosquito would kill me by stabbing with a knife. Since this event has a non zero probability, will it happen?
LatencyOsu
LatencyOsu پیش 12 ساعت
​@Shell Posix haha peak comedy
Shell Posix
Shell Posix پیش 20 ساعت
*i sAiD sOmEdAy*
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش 22 ساعت
@LatencyOsu *metallica "the day that never comes" plays in the background
Athenri
Athenri پیش روز
@LatencyOsu I mean, strictly speaking true. If Minecraft's current entire set of owners (200 millionish) play like 33 runs per day (to match Dream), we'll see *one* example of his luck for one person on one day somewhere completely randomly selected between year 2021 and year 273972604760. Get cracking, minecraft players!
petufo
petufo پیش روز
Vojtěch Mělnický, sounds Czech :))
Si74l0rd
Si74l0rd پیش روز
Fantastic explanation. You definitely brought the statistical likelihood to my level of perception. The statistical papers were a little dense. Your craps comparison and the 10 billion human second century idea made it so much more understandable.
Athenri
Athenri پیش روز
In fairness - this is a very special situation where the raw probability itself is enough. Usually you have to go into the dense statistics to tell things apart. Here though? The raw probability of Dream's "luck" itself puts us into the nonsense category
Paul Graf
Paul Graf پیش روز
Great Video!
jan
jan پیش روز
Verry interesting, about to buy the booke :D
Billy The Kid
Billy The Kid پیش روز
Wait did he a count for dream trading with multiple piglins?
Aakash
Aakash پیش 56 دقیقه
It doesnt matter because they use the same random numbr generator..
Rob Gomez
Rob Gomez پیش روز
diffeent piglins will not effect trades just increases time to get trades
Athenri
Athenri پیش روز
Doesn't matter.
Alex Wynters
Alex Wynters پیش روز
Honest question, cause I really don't know the answer. Isn't it possible, even if the odds are astronomically low, that someone attempting to perform a certain action could perform that action on the first go? How can you say with certainty that a human could never accomplish it when in theory it could occurs on the first attempt? Disclaimer: I honestly have no idea who Dream is and have zero investment in whatever drama they've caused. Just genuinely curious.
Logan Kordinak
Logan Kordinak پیش 18 ساعت
You can't say it with certainty. But nothing in life is certain, what you can say is that it is on orders of magnitude less likely to happen than to not happen Even a criminal trial is only "beyond a reasonable doubt"
Isaac Newton
Isaac Newton پیش روز
One interesting thing in relation to dream speed run that I feel like nobody has ever paid attention to is the fact that Minecraft runs on Java and Java's random number generator is not perfect using the time as the seed as in most cases every millisecond will create a different seat for a random number so if two actions call the random number generator within milliseconds of each other the chance that the random number is the same is great is highly likely this can easily be demonstrated by making a program that calls it get random number feature and runs it once every millisecond to every 10 or so numbers you will get a string of 10 numbers that are the same number using that random number generator based on the time so therefore if piglin trades were happening at the same time the chances that they would create two ender pearl traits based on the same random number using two different people would mean that the chances if you had two pigs to get two trades of pearls is actually the same as one piglet giving one ender pearl
JuukaRock
JuukaRock پیش 12 ساعت
@Isaac Newton You're now talking about the periodicity. When a PRNG runs out of numbers in its sequence, it starts to recycle, beginning from the first output once again. This does have an impact on its overall randomness, but only once you start to recycle the values. So what's the period of Java Random in particular? It uses a 48-bit seed. In other words, the period is going to be just a tiny bit less than 2^48, or 281 trillion. That is, after 281 trillion random numbers being output will you run into the issue of random numbers repeating in the same order as the first time around. Going by the mod team's range of 6000-9000 random numbers called from world RNG per game tick, and there being 20 game ticks in a second, even if you highball and say every game tick makes 9000 random number requests, you would need to play for: 2.81E14 / (9000 x 20 ticks/seconds x 60 seconds/minute x 60 minutes/hour) = 434 374 hours. In other words, irrelevant for our 24 hours worth of sample data. Made even less relevant that each time Dream starts a new run, the seed of the world RNG changes. The only time that the periodicity of the PRNG comes into play was if someone was to play 434K hours of Minecraft STRAIGHT in one sitting, in one single world. And time is not in the equation. Time is just a component of the seed. The mathematical PRNG equations do not use time themselves. Again, section 9 of the mod team paper goes over the periodicity in more mathematical detail about why it has effectively no impact here. As an aside: > why Mojang created it so that all penguins reference a single list of random numbers set for the piglins, why not have each piglin have its own instance of prng There's pros and cons to both approaches, and Minecraft actually uses both methods. The Blazes for instance make a new PRNG each time they die to determine their drops. Having a "master" PRNG control everything (or in Minecraft's case, mostly everything) is actually accepted practice in most situations, as it makes it less likely a player can manipulate that seed to their liking. Since it only happens on world load, that means a player can't really interact with it in any meaningful way during the course of a session since it's already been set, and it's being used in too many places to effectively keep track of where you are in the PRNG sequence. The only real disadvantage of this strategy is potential for lag; that is, if too many things need random numbers from this one generator, parts of the game could stall if the PRNG can't spit out numbers fast enough and force them to wait their turn for a value. Even at 9000 near simultaneous requests though, Minecraft is quite well below whatever limit Java Random has. Instantiating a new PRNG really is just there to dodge that problem. Since these get seeded on each mob death, there IS a chance that a player can manipulate the time to try and alter their results favourably. That's why Minecraft is smart and throws a wrench in those plans by seeding not only the time by itself but XOR'd with another random number from another PRNG which can't be manipulated by time because it has a set seed and is also called a random number of times so there's no telling where it is in its sequence either.
Isaac Newton
Isaac Newton پیش روز
@JuukaRock thank you for clarifying, I have never had the opportunity to read how the code for penguin trades works myself, the question still does remain when prng gets another number for the list or generates a whole other set how is it doing so, it also begs the question of why Mojang created it so that all penguins reference a single list of random numbers set for the piglins, why not have each piglin have its own instance of prng. Or likewise each piglin could have its own prng which would be seeded with its uuid? The only basis for my comment is the fact and that Java random is not random, nor is any computers random actually random, because computers are based on logic computers can only create logical answers, we can create complicated functions that take in lots of different variables and do some very complicated math to make them seem more random but they are in fact generated from non random things. Errors in implementations in such randomizers can create odd patterns making the random sequence of numbers less random for lack of a better term. This can be better seen in sloppy implementations of random functions, Javas is better than some it is definitely not the best. My point still stands if you generate a list of 10 trade integers, at some point your list of integers will run out and you will have to generate more, when you generate these integers they will be generated very quickly between them. Whether you stock the list by adding one as soon as one gets removed or by generating a completely new list when the first one is empty, my point remains the same about the random numbers being generated based on time and probably other factors, which means that random numbers generated in quick succession have a higher chance to be the same number than ones created different times apart. This of course can be negated by using other variables and combination with time to make the values "more random" but any inclusion in time in the random equation will mean that random numbers close together will be more likely to be the same. Especially when generating numbers within a very small range. The smaller the range the more likely to get the same number in a row more often.
JuukaRock
JuukaRock پیش روز
@Isaac Newton > principal remains the same No it doesn't, your principle is wrong because your understanding of how RNGs work is wrong. > RNG is called super close together there is the possibility that the same number will come out twice No. This is not how it works. Let's do an example. Say I have a PRNG, and that for the sake of this example, only Piglin trades request from this PRNG and nothing else (this is not how it works in Minecraft, this is purely for this teaching example). This has a pre-determined sequence of values. Since Piglin trades are out of 423, let's say I request 10 numbers from my PRNG for 10 trade results. I make a save state right before. I do this one with 10 Piglins simultaneously. My results are: 302 78 17 221 259 405 161 84 318 385 Even though the 10 trades happen all at once, the PRNG still needs to spit out the numbers in some sort of sequence because they aren't using multiple PRNGs, they're only using one, so it only ever goes one number at a time (it just happens so fast it's like it's simultaneous to us as humans). So my first Piglin rolled a 302, my second Piglin rolled 78, my third rolled 17, etc. etc. etc. I reset and load my save state and do my 10 trades again, but this time, I only use one Piglin and I wait a minute between each trade. Do you know what my PRNG results will be? You guessed it, it's 302 78 17 221 259 405 161 84 318 385 In other words, my single Piglin rolls a 302 for the first trade, then a 78 for his second trade, then a 17 for his third, and so on. The time does not matter, nor does doing them "simultaneously". One single PRNG can only spit out numbers one at a time, so requesting numbers from it all at once does not mean anything will receive the same value necessarily.
Isaac Newton
Isaac Newton پیش روز
@JuukaRock more specifically what I'm referring to is yes the random number generation is based on some more complicated factors than just one RNG but the principal remains the same since the RNG is called super close together there is the possibility that the same number will come out twice. What I didn't articulate very well in the first post is, say I create a for loop which calls 100 times to get a random number from the random number generator 5 to 7 of them sometimes 10 depending on random number generation will be the same number even though it is called several different times, if the random number generator were to be called very close together such as dropping a stack of gold to several piglins where the more piglins you have the more likely they will all pick it up at the same time, the more likely you are to get the same trade from two piglins. This is happened to me in the game where I will be trading with three or four or five pigments at the same time and sometimes two and even three of them will give me the exact same trade at the same time even same amount, now yes this is pretty rare and doesn't happen very often but it's still possible taking in consideration that we have a small sample size when talking about these and there have been no direct studies on the subject of how often you could reliably get a double trade it's hard to tell exactly how this would affect the probabilities, but even just happening a few times because of the small sample size would be enough to dramatically shift the probabilities.
JuukaRock
JuukaRock پیش روز
> I feel like nobody has ever paid attention to The first mod team paper (like, all of section 9), the accompanying video by Geosquare and 35:36 all address this to varying degrees, the most detailed of which is the original white paper. > using the time as the seed as in most cases every millisecond Nanosecond actually, so 1000 times more narrow to hit the exact same time as another instantiation. Also, Minecraft RNG is seeded not only by the system time in nanoseconds, but that is XOR'd with a number from an LCG (another RNG). So even if you do something like freeze the system time, you aren't going to get the same seed between different RNGs. > easily be demonstrated by making a program that calls it get random number feature and runs it once every millisecond to every 10 or so numbers you will get a string of 10 numbers that are the same number Doesn't work like that. You can get identical results if you pass in the same seed to different RNG objects and get the same number of outputs from both of them. However, if you're using only one single RNG and calling numbers out of it, it will be random enough, and the time that you ask for the next random number isn't going to matter since the order is already pre-determined by the seed. With regards to Piglin trades, they use the same RNG, the world RNG that is called thousands of times per game tick due to lava and netherite blocks calling it repeatedly to render how they do their animations. Because of that, no human player can accurately predict where in the PRNG sequence they are. Trading with multiple Piglins all at once doesn't matter since they'll be calling numbers from the PRNG in some sort of sequence, even if it LOOKS simultaneous to us as viewers and players. Java Random's cryptographic weaknesses here aren't relevant, especially with how Minecraft uses it.
Miguel Ponce
Miguel Ponce پیش روز
Nice vid man! ty buying your book now.
R.J. Searson
R.J. Searson پیش روز
A beard?!!?!?!!?!?!!??!?!??!
Mike Rivas
Mike Rivas پیش روز
Hello I like your channel, I am posting this sin some math oriented channels I like, because I would like some feedback... I dont know if its the right place. anyways..." Hello any math lover out there, or simplhy math fan.. I am from Mexico and I found a document from US sating the proper way to teach and view math. I am worried that they are politicizing math now. And soon this type of view may spread... I dont like that it sates " there is usually not a correct result"??? Am I READING this wrong???? ...please ... (equitablemath.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/11/1_STRIDE1.pdf)"
Catadoodle
Catadoodle پیش روز
Is there such thing as too unlucky to be true?
Catadoodle
Catadoodle پیش 14 ساعت
@Adrian Xhokli Ok thanks. I've been having an argument with someone online about it and I wanted to make sure I wasn't providing false information xD
Adrian Xhokli
Adrian Xhokli پیش 14 ساعت
yep, if dream had gotten 0 pearls or blaze rods in all of those runs, the odds of that happening would be astronomically low as well, just like how rolling 50 snake eyes' in a row is just as unlikely as rolling 50 7's
Mikael Isaksson
Mikael Isaksson پیش روز
I would like to see the odds of 320000 consecutive Biden votes, which if we are to believe the results, actually happened.
Darksun黑日
Darksun黑日 پیش روز
Look at his recent videos
JuukaRock
JuukaRock پیش روز
Yeah, gerrymandering does that.
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش روز
Source?
Rob Gomez
Rob Gomez پیش روز
bro even if he didn’t win popular vote (which every investigation shows he did) biden got more electoral college votes.
MasthaX
MasthaX پیش روز
The chance of getting killed by a chihuahua is small, but never zero. Just remember that.
MasthaX
MasthaX پیش روز
Talking about the lava/water making obsidian thing makes actually real world sense as it is how obsidian rocks are formed (well not exactly, but you get the idea).
MrSayines
MrSayines پیش روز
Lol i was waiting for the cut between the dart and the basketball.
Alkis05
Alkis05 پیش روز
What puts this video over the top is all the low key magic tricks he does in the background just to make a point.
Totally not an edge lord from Zeon
He deleted the video after this! Lmao! Stupid cheater gets rekt!
Madeline Bitts
Madeline Bitts پیش روز
The roulette one isn't as impressive. Roulette dealers, especially inexperienced ones, tend to always land on the same area if they're not paying attention and just replicating their spins, and good roulette dealers can aim for a number and get it pretty often. It's not a random thing because it rests on the spin, and the spin can be made consistent.
FireController#1847
FireController#1847 پیش 2 روز
Unfortunately there is one major factor in Minecraft that I think everyone is continually missing out on, and it's that Minecraft adds an arbitrary value in the game to all RNG called "luck" (conveniently). This value is per-player and can be increased by doing certain actions. This value then modifies your RNG odds for every single drop you get - so if you have high luck, even if the highest probability was 1%, if luck is multiplied into the probability, that could be increased to 50% or even higher - a Minecraft modder. By the way, I don't watch dream and never have could care less. Soooo indifferent opinion
Djosjowa
Djosjowa پیش 7 ساعت
I’ve never heard of this. And I’m sure if this was a thing, dream would have mentioned it to defend himself, which he didn’t.
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش روز
This is false.
ConDor
ConDor پیش 2 روز
And by the way, this is in the top 3 best videos of the year. And it's barely even started.
ConDor
ConDor پیش 2 روز
I remember people saying Stand-up Maths should do a video on him, and I scoffed at them thinking it'd never happen.
Kevin Luo
Kevin Luo پیش 2 روز
This video using just one piece of evidence to explain the whole thing is the definition of quality and simplicity over an elaborate overload of evidence.
TwoLsTwoTs 2Ls2Ts
TwoLsTwoTs 2Ls2Ts پیش 2 روز
best intro I've seen a while
Myles Covlin
Myles Covlin پیش 2 روز
I think one of dreams points was that there are hundreds of factors and they cherry-picked the 2 least likely. Someone who knows math please give me a little explanation
Myles Covlin
Myles Covlin پیش روز
@Athenri thanks for letting me know
Athenri
Athenri پیش 2 روز
Whenever you hear the "one in 7.5 trillion" thing, that has already taken that into account and corrected for the fact that there are multiple ways of being lucky, and multiple people who could get lucky. The point of this video is that as long as you select things correctly (i.e. consecutive runs), dream's claimed luck is so rare that no amount of cherrypicking what variable to look for will get you there.
TyGames
TyGames پیش 2 روز
I mean hey, life is a insanely unprobeable outcome, but here we are :D
Luke Tommy
Luke Tommy پیش 2 روز
you look like a skinny tom segura
Pro Tengu
Pro Tengu پیش 2 روز
mathematics will never actually give you the answer to any logical disjunction
Pro Tengu
Pro Tengu پیش روز
@Athenri someone who had no knowledge of mathematics would still be able to understand the word "all"
Pro Tengu
Pro Tengu پیش روز
@Athenri so youre arguing that "all" is a mathematical term?
Athenri
Athenri پیش روز
@Pro Tengu quantification. The moment you're quantifying over categories, you're doing math. Trivial math, sure, still math.
Pro Tengu
Pro Tengu پیش روز
@Athenri im not sure what you think a mathematical statement is, i didnt use any mathematical operations or language in that statement
Athenri
Athenri پیش روز
​@Pro Tengu that's clearly a mathematical statement, though. You can *write* mathematical statements without using symbols.
Juice Fan 999
Juice Fan 999 پیش 2 روز
As a passionate minecraft player I can confirm that you really shouldn't think about it logically.
Totally not an edge lord from Zeon
If he didn't chest why he deleted the video
2C (02) Chan Kwan Yu
2C (02) Chan Kwan Yu پیش 2 روز
As a maths enthusiasts I completely disagree.
WanganTunedKeiCar
WanganTunedKeiCar پیش 2 روز
*_Teaching math to Minecraft, or teaching Minecraft to math?_*
Kyle
Kyle پیش 2 روز
I was done before the unclosed set of parentheses (which were copy and pasted and showed up multiple times!!!) when I saw they kept using the double apostrophe button " instead of `` for the latex type up
nikhil bailey
nikhil bailey پیش 2 روز
The binomial model is inappropriate because the player almost always ends on a pearl trade, or after they have gotten enough pearls. A better model would be Geometric, with data only to his first pearl.
Athenri
Athenri پیش 2 روز
@nikhil bailey and what happens at the beginning of next run? You go back to trading. If I make a sequence of coin flips, but every time I have gotten two heads, I stand up and yell "I can kill the ender dragon" - how does this impact my sequence? The last head where I actually stop, yes. The ones where I stand up and yell about ender dragons?
nikhil bailey
nikhil bailey پیش 2 روز
@Athenri each trade produces 2-4 pearls. At most 12 are required, but most speed runners enter the end with about 10. This means that there is a stop after every 3-5 success, and possibly fewer depending on over world loot eg: ruined portals, shipwrecks, blacksmiths, enderman spawns, and desert temples. Most runs, there is a stop after 2-4 successes. Knowing previous outcomes has a significant impact on whether or not the speed runner will continue trading.
Athenri
Athenri پیش 2 روز
This is nonsense. It's true that there's a minor stopping bias on the very last trade. If we were looking at a single digit number of trades, not 262 of them, you might have a point. We can overcorrect for this by removing the last pearl trade. It's going to bias things in favor of dream to do this, of course.
Christopher Antos
Christopher Antos پیش 2 روز
This is a frequentist point of view. Could you do a bayesian model for an estimate of probability of Dream's run?
Speek
Speek پیش 2 روز
I don't really like math, and I watched all 39 minutes of this video
Benjamin Lehman
Benjamin Lehman پیش 2 روز
I already got British hardback. I am in the us though.
Benjamin Lehman
Benjamin Lehman پیش 2 روز
It’s like when someone wins the lottery three times. VERY unlikely but it can happen. I know someone won it at least twice.
JuukaRock
JuukaRock پیش 2 روز
Did they do it consecutively and also two more times right after, because THEN you'd approach Dream's odds.
Zizzy Balluba
Zizzy Balluba پیش 2 روز
n 1 5 5 3 r
Lazyretard
Lazyretard پیش 2 روز
okay so can we trust that whoever looked at his trades was counting correctly or just lies
Djosjowa
Djosjowa پیش 7 ساعت
You can count it yourself if you want to check it
Logan Kordinak
Logan Kordinak پیش 18 ساعت
Username checks out
Athenri
Athenri پیش 2 روز
Yes. They directly source where in the streams you can see it in the mod team report.
Pickle Supply Company Yep!
What happens to a minecraft fan after both testicles descend?
Tejas Misra
Tejas Misra پیش 2 روز
He ceases to be one
Oxybone
Oxybone پیش 2 روز
I died when he said “please don’t come and brigade me dream stans” dropped a sub too, super entertaining
Henry Sues
Henry Sues پیش 2 روز
Luck is the Antonym of my existence.
Drowned Crow
Drowned Crow پیش 2 روز
How many Times did you Throw that Dart before it landing in Bullseye?
Ross Bentley
Ross Bentley پیش 2 روز
Any one notice the Easter egg of Humble pi being in the minecraft chest at 2:47? xD
Рафаэль Айбулатов
Minecraft statistics phd.
Nikhil Janardhan Enduri
Nikhil Janardhan Enduri پیش 2 روز
@Dream
alexander aphonin
alexander aphonin پیش 2 روز
Here to do algorithm pleasing things:) Awesome video, a really nice explanation. Only thing that I wanted to point out is that not only 10 bil. people are doing minecraft speedruns every second, but we rather assume that each speedrun takes just a second. That's quite a difference.
2C (02) Chan Kwan Yu
2C (02) Chan Kwan Yu پیش 2 روز
No, we are assuming that 33 speedruns take a second.
Adam Řežábek
Adam Řežábek پیش 2 روز
i think u still need to calculate for data sampling bias. You calculated propability of this all happening in one speedrun, but (taken af absurdum) in every speedrun, he killed just one blaze or did just one barter, getting this results using "selective blindness" is easy
Athenri
Athenri پیش 2 روز
@Adam Řežábek No worries. There's a lot of misinformation out here regarding the situation - Dream's response video for example stated that they took "only his six luckiest livestreams" - but while that's *true* - they took them consecutively from the moment they suspected cheating, and his six luckiest livestreams "just happen" to be the ones where they suspected cheating.
Adam Řežábek
Adam Řežábek پیش 2 روز
@Athenri oh, didn't know that. Thanks for providing me wrong
Athenri
Athenri پیش 2 روز
It's across 33 consecutive speedruns. As long as they *are* consecutive, this is fine.
Djanzz Djanzz
Djanzz Djanzz پیش 2 روز
17:16 ... what is the chance that the book lands on the shelf like that?
LimEBoy
LimEBoy پیش 2 روز
This is gamer luck. Stop being mad.
Darksun黑日
Darksun黑日 پیش روز
Shut up, Dream stan
Juk It
Juk It پیش روز
@LimEBoy stay mad, dream privated his vid, meaning he admits it :)
George Lionon
George Lionon پیش 2 روز
@Athenri And Dream-Stans are mad.. because IT CANNOT BE!!!!!
turbosaucer2000
turbosaucer2000 پیش 2 روز
LimEBoy Stop baiting, im looking for actual stans
LimEBoy
LimEBoy پیش 2 روز
@Athenri/videos u so mad, just deal with it. he won and you lost
Living Young Entertainment
Ill just say its basically impossible to figure out if he's cheating or not unless there is some kind of "hard" evidence of foul play.
Living Young Entertainment
Living Young Entertainment پیش 8 ساعت
@Logan Kordinak I'm looking at your comment and I'm trying to figure out which comment your responding to.
Logan Kordinak
Logan Kordinak پیش 18 ساعت
No it's not, even a criminal trial is only beyond a reasonable doubt. This is wildly beyond a reasonable doubt
Cyrillum
Cyrillum پیش روز
@Henry Lyman successful trades. I'm trying to replicate it while recording but I have had no luck. I will post you a link to a video if I can replicate it. You probably wont believe me so feel free to call me a liar.
Henry Lyman
Henry Lyman پیش 2 روز
@Cyrillum 31 pearls or successful trades?
Cyrillum
Cyrillum پیش 2 روز
@morbideddie I know this sounds crazy but I did 50 trades to test it for fun and got 31 pearl trades. I wish I was recording dammit
Charis Cat // Child of an Android
Hiya Matt! May I ask why the automatic subtitles aren't turned on? It means I can't watch the video, and I love your work!
Tom Birmingham
Tom Birmingham پیش 3 روز
Loot tables are not based on a random number generator that probably tied to something weird like an atomic clock. I found this out when I recorded the times of drops on a server I was playing on it found that at particular times the same item would drop off a monster like clockwork
Juk It
Juk It پیش روز
Dropper works with LGC, which can be mathematically predicted. Loots aren't.
Adam Řežábek
Adam Řežábek پیش 2 روز
it's not based on time. Bacically, it stores number X, and every time it calls function "giveMeRandomNumber", it does some basic math with X (change it) and return it
David Trimas
David Trimas پیش 3 روز
I'm confused how you can multiply Dream's Odd's by 3.1E19, doesn't that assume that each run each person does takes 1 second. Shouldn't this be multiplied by the rate that you can do the trade for the two items?
Athenri
Athenri پیش 14 ساعت
The idea is to set a massive upper bound by inflating every parameter wildly. We know that there's less than 10 billion people doing it because there's less than 10 billion people. We know the frequency is (far far) below once per second, we know the duration is far less than a century. So whatever number of events is the actual number in Minecraft? We know it is far far smaller than the one we get from the 10 billion human second century.
Teeks
Teeks پیش 2 روز
That’s the whole point. By making each variable a ridiculous number biased in Dream’s favor, it shows the ridiculous number of attempts you would have to do to get Dream’s results
Max Stone
Max Stone پیش 3 روز
What are the odds that someone as lucky as Timothy Dexter existed?
flivk
flivk پیش 3 روز
High iq
Grz349
Grz349 پیش 3 روز
Not sure how much this makes sense but I would like to know how Dream’s luck companies the the rest of the top 5. The reason I ask is that minecraft speed running requires luck, so any submission has to be above the standard.
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش 2 روز
Dreams luck was consistently high over several streams (about 24hrs total) while the other top 5 runs are only about 15 mins long. Getting that luck over a short period is much more likely due to the law of big numbers. The mods also compared dreams overall luck vs other top runners and found the other runners to have fairly average numbers.
Athenri
Athenri پیش 2 روز
That's a perfectly valid question. The mods looked into that when making the original paper and found that the others had far more "normal" luck.
Amaury Ansar
Amaury Ansar پیش 3 روز
I learned so much about Craps and the odds not rolling 7s!
Nick Lawver
Nick Lawver پیش 3 روز
Was this guy a commentator on outrageous acts of science?
Scott
Scott پیش 3 روز
At the end of the day, we can all conclude that Dream won and everyone else lost... It's grounded in Mathematics too: - Dream made a stupid amount of money from this drama - No one else did Therefore, higher number wins. Dream won coz of all that sweet, sweet ad revenue. "No publicity is bad publicity".
George Lionon
George Lionon پیش 2 روز
Yeah, our society kind of rewards cheaters and liars in the end!
Terrabalt
Terrabalt پیش 2 روز
I'unno, a 40-minute Matt Parker's video on statistics is priceless
GIboy1990
GIboy1990 پیش 3 روز
10 billion times less likely to happen and still couldn't do it faster. Lol what a normie
Faceless
Faceless پیش روز
If you're talking about Dreams ability to not get a WR, he actually was on WR pace but (funnily enough) got bad RNG right at the end as he didn't get enough eyes of ender
Linda Hunter
Linda Hunter پیش 3 روز
Roy Sullivan. That is all
SilverGuy
SilverGuy پیش 3 روز
Yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes thank you so much I know the stans will deny this video and probably not even watch it but at least I loved it because it’s good proof and a hell of a lot easier to understand than some other videos like this
HopefulInnocence
HopefulInnocence پیش 3 روز
I remember seeing that book. That’s you? Defiantly subbing for that. Video just got recommended to me for no reason. Oh well. A lucky thing then.
Ducky Man
Ducky Man پیش 3 روز
"How lucky is too lucky" Larry Silverstein lucky
Pikachulova7
Pikachulova7 پیش 3 روز
Great videp though matt
Pikachulova7
Pikachulova7 پیش 3 روز
17:20 how the hell he get it to flip like that
Ethan Ray
Ethan Ray پیش 3 روز
Well this is a video I never expected on this channel. But I’ll take it
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